4 Tweets starting on Oct 15 2019

Magic metrics indicating a startup probably has product/market fit: 1) cohort retention curves that flatten (stick… https://t.co/3fzsWzaEho

3) viral factor >0.5 (enough to amplify other channels) 4) dau/mau > 50% (it's part of a daily habit) 5) market-by-… https://t.co/VhEnFG6r47

6) D1/D7/D30 that exceeds 60/30/15 (daily frequency) 7) revenue or activity expansion on a *per user* basis over ti… https://t.co/SpzlY89QvH

(Last year I published this deck which talks about some of these: https://t.co/Kp7YSHTTs6)

2 Tweets starting on Oct 15 2019

Fascinating graph of which occupations have transitioned from mostly male to diverse in the past few decades: - bus… https://t.co/qc2Yc4VM8Z

The longer WSJ article is here: https://t.co/LwxH4Sh240 Would love to see this graphed alongside university enroll… https://t.co/MPINdVvDYF

2 Tweets starting on Oct 15 2019

How long before CBD drinks come to the workplace? Remember back when it was a big deal to have a couple beers in t… https://t.co/vl5hjVyzwW

In fact, I'm curious if this has already happened? If your work has CBD drinks in it -- pic or it doesn't count!

3 Tweets starting on Oct 15 2019

recently @eldon interviewed me for Techcrunch -- here's the video: https://t.co/i6mYpdQN8c topics: - what's happen… https://t.co/AD7ep0rIjE

- network effects versus scale effects - ad supported business models and why I'm bearish - @SubstackInc and the en… https://t.co/qD5rysheBX

And here's a long deck I've written about why I'm excited about consumer tech startups and what form they might tak… https://t.co/28XenATfx2

3 Tweets starting on Oct 14 2019

consumer startups increasingly looking to LA as a major hub. I think it's an interesting trend, as I moved to the B… https://t.co/HUZrOhPTEg

why? First, there are notable successes that create alumni networks, expertise, angel investors, and so on: - snap,… https://t.co/m087dZQjJs

- startups need an influencer strategy, and they're all in LA - short flight from SFO<>LAX = cross-pollination of t… https://t.co/ZVFoB8DrD4

3 Tweets starting on Oct 14 2019

Lessons I've learned writing tweetstorms: - it's a great activity to do in those 20min slots between meetings. Ins… https://t.co/JFESLWBFyw

- if you are going unpack a topic, start with an explanation on WHY it's important. I don't want to read a wikipedi… https://t.co/YotxlfqcOj

- ask friends to RT your tweetstorms. I'm not above this :) I have a slack/whatsapp or two that help me grow tweets… https://t.co/8rEs2MMDCq

3 Tweets starting on Oct 14 2019

Some random podcasts I've been enjoying: - @PessimistsArc - history of tech. https://t.co/BdaUDN6MAW -… https://t.co/xZ13iRMekf

- BBC's "you're dead to me" - fun history stuff. https://t.co/nULt18s2gr - Econtalk - nerding out on econ.… https://t.co/8zFHPIwCzJ

What else am I missing? Link me :)

4 Tweets starting on Oct 12 2019

My partner @ljin18 wrote re: “The Passion Economy” There’s deep trends here: - Many dissatisfied w/ work, esp the… https://t.co/XKkQdn2qID

These trends are growing! At the same time, the wide proliferation of information has made everything more transpar… https://t.co/zMeZK3IuQ4

We’ve spent a good chunk of the past few years talking about the gig economy, focused on the convenience for custom… https://t.co/z5AFk6CUWj

Follow @ljin18 and read her essay here: https://t.co/tS753NiV2c

2 Tweets starting on Oct 10 2019

omg superhuman dark mode. 💪 https://t.co/4H8LqWqFxF

blog post from @Superhuman here: https://t.co/1azVwrJ5VB

2 Tweets starting on Oct 10 2019

One of the great perks of working w/ @bhorowitz is reading a copy of his new book early! https://t.co/0MB6PKWDUs

Obligatory pre-order link here: https://t.co/5dTB5AHVKb

3 Tweets starting on Oct 09 2019

You might think consumer startups are "hits-driven" with binary outcomes, but I think that's all going to change in… https://t.co/2QJV0qGMfp

Instead, consumer startups are doing transactional business models, subscription, micropayments, and monetizing via… https://t.co/b2k1LTrLOP

IMHO the future will likely look more like B2B in that there will be consumer startups with all sorts of outcomes:… https://t.co/qtI4HiY1Yq

4 Tweets starting on Oct 09 2019

Back when they were startups, it was a debate if consumer cos like Google, YouTube, Instagram, etc could be huge su… https://t.co/dVqcAIKbHq

We're now running this experiment in productivity/bottoms-up SaaS. Am seeing many new "consumer products in the wo… https://t.co/mZb3pr3icv

Y'all might be cynical about this, but I think the outcome will be the same -- if a workplace product is sticky, is… https://t.co/qbRMCmmVN1

(All of this in a reaction to people being 🤯 about the pattern of SaaS startups raising at 100x ARR multiples etc)

5 Tweets starting on Oct 08 2019

The iPhone comes out in 2007 and changes the camera industry. Amazing to see a 90% decline in just 10 years after g… https://t.co/nGqxbpjNpW

It’s easy to say that newspapers or something that’s obviously going south will decline even more Question is, wha… https://t.co/HNjU1LHauR

Cars? College educations? Boxed cereal? Dear lazyweb, do your thing 😎

My favorite for “popular now, but obsolete in 10 years” — - parking lots - pro football - game consoles - factory… https://t.co/BuxiGhWS3V

And also the bottom 75% of colleges that don’t provide an education nor a brand name — but they do rack up debt Se… https://t.co/RmnQQoJGoG

3 Tweets starting on Oct 08 2019

"The Passion Economy." Love it. Thread 👇 https://t.co/oTTJdEUAIO

Infographic ftw. https://t.co/ITf7ULtuNE

Also a nice table on creator tools https://t.co/AM8VDVkPUn

3 Tweets starting on Oct 07 2019

Video within apps is turning into a flexible, rich media format that’s going much further beyond the 30 second YouT… https://t.co/9aoi1qhsNz

Each new media format blends both video and interactivity, in novel ways, but also comes with an ecosystem of tooli… https://t.co/aSJXNbeK4y

This richness in new video formats is sure to spawn some huge wins. We saw text move from blog posts to tweets to c… https://t.co/JdZ2CNNTaF

5 Tweets starting on Oct 06 2019

"Consumer internet is dead" -- there's a meme that the sector is dead bc: 1) the big tech cos fast-follow 2) the ap… https://t.co/hQ6Ozx9zn6

The app store launched in 2008, flooding the world with simple, easy apps -- fart apps, flashlights, horoscopes, et… https://t.co/vCxJ1kBGRS

Don't simple/viral mobile apps but instead, create startups around: - fintech, real estate, or go after the develo… https://t.co/rv9YRZy001

Related: Here's a twitter poll I did a few weeks ago on what old school consumer internet folks are working on now… https://t.co/DTdYMVGVlw

Also related, a preso from a while back on what I'm most excited about in the consumer sector, with some historical… https://t.co/uMuM9TNIKL

3 Tweets starting on Sep 30 2019

👇thread below is how I help startups think through how they'll grow their product Turns out evaluating a startup f… https://t.co/5QUxMDlLsc

1) often investors ask, is it working? Bc if it's not, it may be raising ahead of its progress. Or big $ for someth… https://t.co/fAXwGqAHn5

2) scaling the growth is key. Are the levers obvious? Is the team well-suited to use these levers? Maybe there's so… https://t.co/EZnNDs4Aau

3 Tweets starting on Sep 29 2019

"does it have product/market fit?" -- seems a simple yes/no answer, but in reality there are many many shades of gr… https://t.co/2HDcpo5YeR

Some products have strong 80%+ annual retention, but then have such high CAC/LTV that it doesn't seem like it'll wo… https://t.co/ibXqEXaZKr

Product/market fit is seen as a binary choice, but everyone who's in the trenches knows it's much trickier than tha… https://t.co/Uk8hjAuYUg

4 Tweets starting on Sep 29 2019

My order of operations when I sit down with a startup to figure out how to grow their new product. 1) first, is it… https://t.co/qPC65rzjbS

2) if it is working, then how do we scale it? I look at the acquisition mix -- how are new users finding the produc… https://t.co/Fjufp1ML94

3) what can we do in the product to amplify all of the above? Since product is expensive to build, let's focus on… https://t.co/VJkPtiIvVs

longer discussion on above: https://t.co/Kp7YSHTTs6

3 Tweets starting on Sep 28 2019

a16z just did its *fourth* ex-Uber alumni investment! 💪 (more details coming soon) It's been fun to see this cycle… https://t.co/q714k2xWxz

The NYT wrote about this exact phenomenon in a recent article here: https://t.co/pg7b6PxNBZ The reason why Uber is… https://t.co/rP9YtxWOQh

There are 20+ vc-backed ex-Uber startuos-- in Asia, Europe, NYC/SF/LA. I've been meeting multiple new teams every m… https://t.co/56y1D7LaiL

3 Tweets starting on Sep 27 2019

Having an amazing network of people around you to talk shop is like having a superpower — esp important when trying… https://t.co/OFq98vO5n7

I moved to SF and one key decision I made was to meet 3-5 new people every day for about 6 months. My entire networ… https://t.co/w4zv9XP2Rd

There’s a lot to do this space to reinvent everything from conferences to resumes/portfolios to edu — everything th… https://t.co/NjDTH1msdK

4 Tweets starting on Sep 25 2019

My partner @cdixon wrote “the next big thing will start out by looking like a toy.” It’s been fun to see a differe… https://t.co/RbkHmGEYKt

These cos start with niche geos where the density of people is high and network effects can be established early. C… https://t.co/F7FVmt7SJy

At the center of this strategy, of course, is software. It lets you operate in smaller markets. And once you win a… https://t.co/ujjMoSGfMN

*@cdixon’s original essay: https://t.co/3FzNFKAQ3Q

3 Tweets starting on Sep 25 2019

“How much churn is OK for my product?” It’s easy to offer general guidelines — “70%+ retention per year.” “Or D30… https://t.co/5mLNxaCaLm

To maintain this high growth, each hear you need to both: 1) replace all the users that churned 2) plus, scale acqu… https://t.co/c63jcQE4Nz

With too much paid spend, degrading cohorts, etc., and all of a sudden you find yourself spending insane $ to scale… https://t.co/m8gYeXfX63

4 Tweets starting on Sep 23 2019

The Law of Shitty Cohorts. It's not unusual for a startup to have "meh" retention. But then usually, team says it… https://t.co/3Xr2oiFYnH

The reason is that the early cohorts of users -- let's say the first couple million or so -- are usually your best… https://t.co/FRqJMV9Ql3

In rideshare, all the urban dwelling power users who don't have cars, and use apps every day - they've all signed u… https://t.co/dLF42VBPGT

So even while teams improve their product, activation, and lifecycle, there's an opposite (and sometimes even stron… https://t.co/5NIspwCzZk

2 Tweets starting on Sep 23 2019

Dear lazyweb, what’s the best way for me to find all the popular tweetstorms in a given week and/or from people I’m following?

tldr; no one has a real solution :)

3 Tweets starting on Sep 19 2019

Yup. Pick a strategy, then use metrics to validate that you’re making progress and it’s working. Metrics shouldn’t… https://t.co/4EeJt1Ox1o

It’s easy to hear about a metric everyone talks about - MAU! - and decide that’s the end all. Of course that’s key… https://t.co/7bxq7LBcnr

However, it might be a disaster for SaaS - the focus should be on paying customers, not the free one. It’s easy to… https://t.co/HUmSNzy7XG

3 Tweets starting on Sep 18 2019

Must-read for everyone working on ecommerce/DTC/subscription within consumer on the rise and fall of Blue Apron. Lo… https://t.co/r4h3eynjXN

Summary of what happened -- with some commentary: - lots of early traction, fueled by paid marketing. Tons of reven… https://t.co/8S5mkgCTj2

- Another guess, newer cohorts weren't as good: "72% of Blue Apron users canceled their subscriptions within the fi… https://t.co/C0SOWxYwIJ